The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) has projected a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for this year. They anticipate the formation of between eight and 14 named storms, with three to six potentially escalating into hurricanes. Of those, one to three could reach major hurricane status, falling within Category 3 to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This forecast contrasts with the 30-year average spanning from 1991 to 2020, which saw 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes during a typical season.
Running from June 1 to Nov. 30, the Atlantic hurricane season was the focus of a recent media event where NOAA director Ken Graham underlined the inherent danger posed by hurricanes, regardless of the predicted numbers. The Canadian Hurricane Centre (CHC) also released a forecast in line with NOAA’s projections. Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada, highlighted that approximately 35 to 40 percent of storms pass through CHC’s response zone, extending from Atlantic Canada to northern Ontario, with one or two of these storms typically causing some impact.
The rationale behind the below-average forecast is attributed to the potential emergence of a particularly strong El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that results in heightened wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong vertical wind shear, characterized by varying wind speed and direction at different altitudes, can hinder storm formation, whereas weaker winds facilitate hurricane development. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that global ocean temperatures, especially in the mid-Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes originate, are currently among the warmest recorded due to climate change. These warm waters serve as the primary fuel for hurricane formation.
Continued emissions of fossil fuels into the atmosphere contribute to excess warming, with the oceans absorbing 90 percent of the surplus heat. Notably, Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist with Covering Climate Now (CCN), likened warm waters to a speed limit and wind shear to a stoplight during a media briefing preceding NOAA’s forecast. He emphasized that when wind shear weakens, storms can intensify rapidly. The Pacific region, in contrast, is expected to experience an above-average hurricane season according to NOAA’s forecast, with 15 to 22 storms predicted, including nine to 14 named storms and five to nine major hurricanes.
In the previous year, there were 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes in the Atlantic, though no storms made landfall in the U.S. as hurricanes. Nevertheless, these storms resulted in 125 fatalities and $503 million US in damages, as reported by NOAA. The final hurricane of the season, Melissa, hit Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, claiming the lives of 45 individuals (along with another 43 in Haiti) and causing $12.2 billion in damages. Kelesha Williams, a journalist with Television Jamaica, noted the increasing frequency of major events like hurricanes impacting Jamaica.
Overall, vigilance and preparedness are crucial as experts navigate the complexities of the upcoming hurricane season amidst evolving climatic conditions.