Nuclear experts caution that the military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, might have inadvertently increased the likelihood of Iran developing a nuclear bomb. The experts, who have experience in past efforts to sanction and contain Iran, believe that prior to the conflict, Iran’s nuclear ambitions were restrained more by diplomatic factors than technical limitations. However, the dynamics have shifted following the military strikes on Iran, including bombings, assassinations, and destruction of military assets.
The focus on preventing Iran from enriching uranium to “weapons grade” levels has overshadowed the fact that Iran can still potentially create a powerful nuclear weapon without reaching the same enrichment levels as advanced nuclear powers. Physicist Steve Fetter, who previously served in the White House and was involved in the Iran nuclear deal, asserts that Iran’s existing 60 percent enriched material is sufficient for nuclear weapons production. Another expert, plasma physicist Tara Drozdenko, suggests that while Iran halted enrichment at 60 percent for political reasons, they could have continued to higher levels if desired.
The experts highlight the short “breakout time” for Iran to reach weapons-grade uranium due to its current enrichment status. Despite airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, experts believe that Iran’s technical capabilities and expertise could enable them to rebuild and advance their nuclear program. The potential design for an Iranian nuclear bomb is described as a relatively simple and achievable “gun-type device.”
The experts point out that Iran’s nuclear intentions have been a subject of debate, with Iran previously having a covert nuclear weapons program. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran agreed to limitations on its uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief, which was later revoked by the U.S. The current geopolitical landscape and past actions have potentially altered Iran’s decision-making regarding nuclear armament.
The experts express concerns about the challenges of preventing Iran from reactivating its nuclear program, noting the country’s resources and capabilities. They caution that military interventions may not be effective in eliminating Iran’s nuclear potential and could instead push Iran towards further nuclear ambitions. These developments have raised questions about the future implications of Iran’s nuclear program and the broader nuclear proliferation landscape.